2011 MLB Draft: Rounds 2-30 Winners and Losers

By | June 9, 2011 at 8:31 pm | 11 comments | MLB Draft, News | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The 2011 MLB Draft, with a class marked by a deep class of future stars, is about to come to a close. After an exciting and surprising first 60 picks on June 6th, round 2-30 were completed last night. While this segment of the draft isn’t quite as exciting as the first round, at least in term’s of starpower, many of the nation’s top high school players and toughest signs fall into this category. With over a thousand of players being selected in this part of the draft, it’s important for clubs to know their scouting reports and to keep their budget in mind. If their front office personnel can make savvy picks, rebuilding clubs can re-tool their farm system with young talent while contending clubs– who likely had few picks early in the draft– can still leave the draft with at least a few intriguing prospects.

In our previous “Winners and Losers” report, we named the Washington Nationals and the Arizona Diamondbacks as the two biggest winners of the draft’s first round. On the other hand, we also named the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees as the biggest losers of the day. Results from rounds 2-30 weren’t much different from the first day’s picks however, as many teams continued with ugly strategies and weren’t able to resurrect their weak draft. The Nationals and Diamondbacks continued their great streaks while the Blue Jays and Cubs completely turned their drafts around.

The Winners

Washington Nationals

(Matt Purke (96), Kylin Turnbull (127), Matt Skole (157), Taylor Hill (187), Brian Dupra (217), Dixon Anderson (277), Hawtin Buchanan (577)):

After grabbing the classes’ top hitter in Anthony Rendon with the 6th overall pick and getting great value picks with hard-throwing Alex Meyer (23) and five-tool Brian Goodwin (34) with their first three selections, the Nationals continued their great draft– grabbing a handful of talented arms in the middle rounds. GM Mike Rizzo managed to get his hands on Matt Purke, a southpaw out of TCU who was ranked among the drafts top 10 prior to recent injury woes, all the way down at the 96th slot. While Purke’s arm troubles keep him from rating as a top prospect, he has the talent to be an ace pitcher in the MLB. When he’s at his best, Purke throws four above-average pitches with quality command including a 90-94 mph fastball and one (arguably) the best curveball among this year’s class of lefthanders. Even if his arm needs time to heal, or even surgery, the Nationals still made a great pick here. As a team locked in the middle stages of rebuilding, they have the luxury of time and patience.

Mike Rizzo and the Nats’ front office continued to make great value picks into the middle rounds of the draft while also addressing his organization’s need for young arms. Washington picked up two smart, polished college pitchers out of Vanderbilt and Notre dame when they selected Taylor Hill and Brian Dupra. Both righties have good pitchers frames, heavy low-90s fastballs and innings eater/mid-rotation potential. Both pitchers are high floor guys who are close to the MLB and their durable profiles will be a great complement to the National’s crop of electric talents in Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Alex Meyer and Matt Purke.

While Rizzo’s great picks in the early rounds afforded could have allowed them to budget themselves for the remainder of the draft and fill their minor league system with organizational guys, the Nationals’ front office didn’t pass up the opportunity to continue drafting for talent. They grabbed tall (6’5″) projectable, lefthander Kylin Turnbull in the fourth round, first-team All-ACC slugger Matt Skole in the 5th, big-bodied power arm Dixon Anderson in the 9th and toolsy 6’8″ righthander Hawton Buchanan 557th overall. Anderson has a mid 90s fastball and high ceiling, while Skole has plus raw power. Both Turnbull and Buchanan are tall, raw pitchers who flash lows 90s heat with plenty of room for more if they can add some strength to their lanky frames. The Nats’ also took South Carolina lefthander Bryan Harper, brother of their top prospect Bryce Harper, in the 30th round.

San Diego Padres

(Austin Hedges (82), Matt Andriese (112), Cody Hebner (143), Mark Pope (173), Kyle Gaedele (203), Matt Wisler (233), Collin Rea (383), Burch Smith (443), Matt Stites (533))

Despite their stretch-pick of Cory Spangenberg at 10th overall, the Padres have done a good job of consistently taking one of the consensus top talents left on the board on each of their turns. Spangenberg wasn’t the tenth most talented player in the draft, but he isn’t a gross overdraft either and he’ll likely be a solid everyday major league infielder. The Padres followed their first selection with three of the nation’s top high school players in Joe Ross, Michael Kelly, Brett Austin who would all be immense additions if the Padres pony up the cash to get them to ignore their college commitments. They also grabbed athletic shortstop Jace Peterson– a defensive back on McNeese State’s football team– who has Jose Offerman potential as a burner infielder.

On day two, the Padres continued to take the ideal approach of drafting for talent. To follow-up their pick of Austin in the first round, the Padres grabbed Austin Hedges, the top defensive catcher among the nation’s class of high schoolers. While it will be tough to pry Hedges away from his UCLA commitment, his potential as a Gold Glove catcher makes him worth a gamble. Because the Padres saved on last years draft when their first round pick turned down their offer, they should have plenty of money to sign at least one of Brett Austin and Austin Hedges.

After their streak of signing five of the nation’s top high school ballplayers in their first six picks, the Padres then used their next three picks to grab college arms advanced in their development. Padres GM Jed Hoyer gave his club two polished, high-floor arms when he selected Matt Andriese 112th and Mark Pope 173rd. Neither Andriese nor Pope have power stuff, but each have solid command and good feel for their advanced offspeed pitches. Both righties should be good back-end starters in the big leagues. Hoyer made a great value pick when he selected toolsy Valpairoso outfielder Kyle Gaedele– blessed with an intriguing combo of power and speed– at 203rd overall.

The formidable Padres bullpen’s future got a bit brighter when Hoyer added a few exciting relief prospects yesterday.  Cody Hebner, who was selected in the 5th round (143rd)– between Andriese and Pope– has a power mid-90s fastball and a good slider. While he probably won’t be a major league closer, Hebner’s power repertoire, good athleticism and great arm speed makes him a good bet to be a successful back-end reliever. Burch Smith and Matt Stites, selected 443rd and 533rd respectively, both have low 90s fastballs, quick arms and solid breaking stuff.

San Francisco Giants

(Andrew Susac (86), Ricky Oropesa (116), Bryce Bandilla (147), Chris Marlowe (177), Josh Osich (207), Raymond Black (237), Kentrell Hill (327), Garrey Buechele (447))

The Giants’ first overall selection, shortstop Joe Panick, was a bit of a stretch. The rest of the Giants draft class however was one of the MLB’s most solid. As expected, GM Brian Sabean and the San Francisco front office avoided tough signs and expensive high school gambles and went the conservative route, opting for more advanced college talent. Sabean drafted premium college prospects Andrew Susac, Ricky Oropesa, Bryce Bandilla, Chris Marlowe and Josh Osich in bargain slots and stocked the Giants farm system without breaking the bank.  San Francisco is ready to compete now and the team could use some power bats and some extra arms. The clubs 2011 draft did a great job of addressing both of these issues, and many of the Giants picks should be ready to help the big club sooner rather than later.

The Giants selected Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac and USC first baseman Ricky Oropesa with their second and third round picks, doing a great job of addressing their system’s need for high-ceiling bats. While a broken hamate bone slowed him down this past season at Oregon State, Susac is this classes’ most advanced college catcher and offers a great mix of tools on both sides of the plate. Susac is an athletic catcher with good receiving skills and a strong arm. Offensively, he’s a solid hitter with an intelligent approach and above-average power potential.

From the left side, USC’s Ricky Oropesa has plus-plus raw power. He’s blessed with one of the strongest arms among college infielders and has experience at third base. While Oropesa isn’t a good athlete, has below average speed and needs to hone his plate discipline, he has rare power and can hit long home runs to all fields. Oropesa isn’t far behind C.J. Cron in terms of offensive ability and if the Giants coaching staff can polish some of his rough edges, they could end up with an impact-level slugger fit to protect Brandon Belt and Buster Posey in the middle of their order.

Staying true to his past draft strategies, Sabean made sure to stock up on advanced college arms. Power lefthanders Bryce Bandilla and Josh Osich were great values– particularly Osich who was projected to go in the top 50-60– out of the 4th and 6th rounds. Both pitchers have the size and stuff to be either mid-rotation starters or back-end relievers. The Giants were also able to get big-armed Oklahoma State reliever Chris Marlowe at a value slot (177). Despite his 6’1″ stature, Marlowe is an advanced power reliever, armed with mid 90s heat and a plus to plus-plus curveball. All three of Osich, Bandilla and Marlowe are close to the major leagues and at least one of them could be in San Francisco by the end of 2012.

Other Day Two Winners

Boston Red Sox

(Williams Jerez (81), Jordan Weems (111), Noe Ramirez (142), Cody Kukuk (232), Senquez Golson (262), Travis Shaw (292), Deshorn Lake (382))

The Red Sox followed their four great first round selections with a very solid and toolsy group of picks in the middle rounds of the draft. They stole five-tool outfielder Williams Jerez– a player developed on a Yankees-sponsored team– out of New York’s hands. They grabbed another toolsy high school outfielder in Senquez Golson in the 8th round. Golson is one of the drafts fastest players and his broad-shouldered frame and solid swing suggest he’ll grow into some power. Jordan Weems is an underrated high school catching prospect while Cody Kukuk is a projectable lefty with intriguing potential.

Philadelphia Phillies

(Roman Quinn (66), Harold Martinez (90), Adam Morgan (120), Cody Asche (151), Tyler Greene (361), Colton Murray (421))

The Phillies did a good job of maximizing the few picks they had early in the draft. The system could use a boost in its stock of infield prospects and tools-players and GM Ruben Amaro did a great job of addressing this very issue. The Phillies selected the draft’s fasted player, Roman Quinn 66th overall and then grabbed two high-ceiling third baseman, Harold Martinez and Cody Asche out of the bargain bin at 90th and 151 overall.  They also added a future bullpen weapon, Colton Murray.

Arizona Diamondbacks

(Anthony Meo (63), Justin Bianco (93), Evan Marshall (124), Michael Perez (154), Matt Price (184), Ben Roberts (214), Kyle Winkler (304))

Kevin Towers and the Diamondbacks front office have done a great job re-stocking the organizations’ system of prospects. Towers got great value with his picks while also addressing the team’s biggest need– pitching. After drafting Trevor Bauer and Archie Bradley in the first round, the D’Backs nabbed other advanced college arms in Anthony Meo, Evan Marshall, Matt Price and Kyle Winkler. They also drafted Justin Bianco and Ben Roberts, a couple of exciting, high-ceiling, athletes. Bianco has raw plus to plus-plus wheels and a solid left-handed bat while Roberts is a premium athlete with plus raw power.

To supplement the additions of Bauer, Bradley and Chafin– three pitchers that should be their rotation leaders for years to come– the D’Backs continued to stock up on quality arms with picks of Anthony Meo, Evan Marshall, Matt Price and Kyle Winkler. Meo and Winkler are particularly exciting prospects with heavy mid 90s heat. Meo’s groundball-and-strikeout-oriented repertoire fits Arizona’s homerun-heavy ballpark perfectly as he throws a heavy 90-95 mph fastball, a hard cutter and a knockout slider. While his command needs some work, his stuff will make him either a mid-rotation workhorse or an electric bullpen weapon.

Pitching with the USA Youth National Team, Kyle Winkler helped his team win the 2006 Pan American Games Championship in Venezuela. While his small-ish stature (standing at 5’11″) and recent injury troubles caused his stock to drop out of the first round, Winkler’s advanced, power arsenal, deceptive delivery and solid command make him a premium prospect. Like Meo, he throws a hard-sinking, low-to-mid 90′s fastball and a tight slider. He also throws a future-average changeup and his command is at least major league average. If he can overcome some recent nagging injuries, he could be one of the drafts biggest steals.

South Carolina’s Matt Price and Kansas State’s Evan Marshall are both future bullpen arms. Both pitchers have solid low 90s heat and good sliders and both are a good bet to compete for a bullpen in Arizona by Spring 2013.

 

Rounds 2-30 Losers

Toronto Blue Jays

(Daniel Norris (74), John Stilson (108), Andrew Chin (169), Anthony DeSciafani (199), Christian Lopes (229), Andrew Suarez (289), Matt Dean (409), Cole Wiper (439), Aaron Nola (679), Jake Eliopoulos (1309))

After flubbing many of their early picks by selecting a bunch of pricy, difficult signs, the Blue Jays continued this trend in day two. While they selected one of the draft’s top talents, Daniel Norris with the 74th pick, they’ve dug themselves into a deeper hole financially. Norris, a Clemson University commit, is probably the most difficult sign of the draft and even if he does decide to play for the ‘Jays, he’ll demand a very hefty signing bonus. Many teams wouldn’t hesitate to meet Norris’ demands, but because Toronto has focused their draft almost entirely on expensive, difficult signs, it’s difficult to believe that their smaller market budget will be enough to lure the young phenom.

While general manager Alex Anthopoulos and the Jays’ front office did make a few good picks– they managed to grab talented Texas A & M closer John Stilson in the third round– they spent the majority of the draft digging themselves in a hole. The talent they did get in Tyler Beede, Jacob Anderson, Dwight Smith Jr. Daniel Norris, Andrew Suarez, Matt Dean and Aaron Nola will be tough to negotiate with and (almost certainly) overpriced; Dean and Norris especially, won’t sign for less than top-20 money.

Outside of possibly saving money for their other signings, the majority of the clubs mid-round picks didn’t help matters either. Anthopoulos selected either low-ceiling guys (Christian Lopes, Anthony DeSciafani) or guys who have serious injury concerns/ have seen better days (Andrew Chin, Jake Eliopoulos).

New York Yankees

(Sam Stafford (88), Greg Bird (179), Jake Cave (209), Phil Wetherell (269), Daniel Camarena (629)

While their AL East rivals–the Red Sox, Rays and Orioles, were busy stocking their farm systems with future stars– the Yankees took a pass on the deep and talented 2011 draft. After forfeiting their first two picks of the draft by signing type A and type B free agents Rafael Soriano and Pedro Feliciano this past winter, the Yankees’ weren’t able to make their opening selection in this year’s draft until they made a decent value pick of Dante Bichette Jr. at 51 overall. After Bichette, they Yankees missed out on numerous top-tier talents and opted for raw high school arms and low-ceiling future organization guys. They missed out on 5-tool talent Williams Jerez– who was drafted in the second round by the Red Sox– despite Hank Steinbrenner’s sponsoring a summer league team the young outfielder played for. They also failed to draft talented southpaw Matt Purke, despite the system’s dire need for lefthanded arms and the extra budget room they had available due to their lacks of picks. Purke, who was considered the top lefthanded pitcher in the draft prior to injury concerns somewhat clouding his future, fell into the Nationals hands at 96 overall.

Brian Cashman and the Yankees front office managed to draft only three players ranked in Baseball America’s “2011 Draft Top 200″ (prospects), with the highest being Dante Bichette Jr. who was ranked 108th. While they did draft two young lefties, Jake Cave (209) and Daniel Camarena (629), both players are extremely raw high school picks who are years away from MLB relevance. In fact, Cave and Camarena aren’t even sure of their future positions on the baseball field and both could end up as corner outfielders.

Other Weak Drafts

Los Angeles Dodgers

(Alex Santana (73), Pratt Maynard (103), Ryan O’Sullivan (134), Scott McGough (164), Scott Barlow (194), Jesus Valdez (524))

As expected, the Dodgers didn’t have the available budget to spend on this season’s draft. They burnt their 16th overall pick on Stanford closer Chris Reed– the biggest stretch of the first round– and then used the remainder of their early picks on relatively cheap, easy signs. While Scott McGough, Ryan O’Sullivan and Pratt Maynard were decent value picks, they don’t fit any of the system’s needs. Out of North Carolina State, Maynard is a fringy defensive catcher without the bat to profile as a regular at a corner position while McGough is a bullpen arm selected by a team heavy on bullpen arms. O’Sullivan could be a solid innings-eater/back-end starter but makeup issues and his lack of innings this past spring suggest he’s at least a couple of seasons away from the big leagues.

Texas Rangers

(Kevin Matthews (33), Zach Cone (37), Will Lamb (83), Kyle Castro (113), Desmond Henry (144), Derek Fisher (204), Trever Adams (504))

In the three-year period team president Nolan Ryan has been overseeing the Rangers draft, the team hasn’t ever been shy about drafting tough-signs and flashy high school arms. The Rangers ’11 draft was no different, but may have been a little bit too much of a gamble. The Rangers are contenders now and ideally their draft would either save them money for mid-season trades and free agent signings or they should focus on advanced college players that are ready to help them sooner rather than later. The Rangers took Kevin Matthews 33rd overall, an athletic 5’10″ high school lefty with a strong commitment to Virgina Tech. While Matthews was a stretch at 33– especially considering Texas passed up talented high school lefties Henry Owens, Andrew Chafin, Grayson Garvin, Adam Conley and Daniel Norris– his strong commitment to Virginia Tech will keep him from being a bargain.

The remainder of the Rangers selections followed the trend they began their draft with. While boom-or-bust five-tool athlete Zach Cone (37th overall) has superstar potential, his pitch recognition and baseball skills are raw and he’s three-to-five years away from helping the Rangers. Speedster Desmond Henry and premium athlete Derek Fisher flash superstar tools but will also demand plenty of money. Henry has Michael Bourne potential, but like Cone, he too is particularly raw. Fisher has a great approach at the plate, plus speed and he flashes plus raw power but he’ll probably come with a first or second round price tag.

In terms of talent, the Rangers did just fine, but they could have done better in terms of fit and value. They passed up more polished college outfielders like Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kes Carter– who could help the big club with just a season or two of development– only to draft a handful of raw high school tools-guys. The high school southpaws they drafted weren’t even the best available and the Rangers are already stocked in terms of pitching.

 

2011 MLB Draft: Rounds 2-30 Winners and Losers / Baseball News Hound by Ryan Kelley is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives CC BY-NC-ND

About the Author

Ryan Kelley

Founder and Executive Editor of BaseballNewsHound.com. Ryan is a graduate of the George Washington University, with a degree in economics. His acclaimed thesis on Major League Baseball's Labor Market is in the running for an excellence award in economics. A young economist working in Washington D.C., Ryan has extensive experience working in professional baseball. In the past, he's worked in player development, for the United States Olympic Committee and in scouting. Ryan's resume also includes jobs in journalism, social media marketing, government as well in non-profit legal services. However, sports and sportswriting are his two passions, and he strives to incorporate his unconventional career experience and academic expertise in his work at BaseballNewsHound.com. Born and raised in Connecticut, Ryan currently resides in Arlington Virginia, just outside of DC. A former amateur baseball and football player, Ryan loves both sports.

  • sheegan

    Toronto is a smaller market? it’s the fourth biggest city in North America, and the only bigger ones have two teams each… how is that a small market? …. Their owner is also probably the richest in the league (Rogers Communications)… If they want to shell out the money to sign their picks, they’ll easily be able to (They made a net profit of over 4.5 billion dollars last year)

    • http://baseballnewshound.com Baseball News Hound

      Toronto is 25th in attendance among MLB teams this season– number-one. Number-two, in terms of franchise value, Toronto is ranked 22nd among MLB teams by Forbes. This season their opening day payroll was over $70,000,000.

      I wasn’t writing that Toronto is some weak small-market team without the ability to make good picks, I was pointing out that their wealth of picks weren’t used effectively. They got caught in between two strategies. They weren’t able to save money by spreading their bonus budget through the many early picks they had and they weren’t able to go the Nationals/Diamdondbacks/RedSox route and spend big on top talents (Rendon, Meyer, Bauer, Bradley, Barnes, Swihart) by saving money on their other picks. They selected the hardest sign of the draft in Norris, a high-priced new england high school pitcher in Beede, a big stretch in Jacob Anderson, and numerous raw, expensive high school players. The one true value-pick they made was Stilson, but injury concerns keep him from even being a slam dunk.

      If you look at the players Toronto COULD have picked at each slot it’s a pretty ugly draft. Worse, they won’t even get all of their early picks unless they overpay.

  • DukesRocks

    First of all, you did state Toronto was a small market team, which is further from the truth. Just because recent attendance has been sub par, compared to the glory years and Forbes ranked the Jays currently at 27th from a value point of view does not make Toronto a small market team. The fact is Toronto is owned by Rogers Communication one of the weathiest Companies in NA. Second the Blue Jays are the only Canadian team in Canada and from a regional point of view is Canada’s Team, not just Toronto’s team.

    Frankly I could’t care less about your grading system, your point being Toronto will have to overpay to get the HS draftees signed over slot. And you are right, they will overpay for some. But when all said and done I will guarantee, Toronto will come out with more players with the potential to make it to the Majors then most teams in this draft. And the aggregated bonuses you are crying about was just chump change in the grander scheme of things.

    • http://baseballnewshound.com Baseball News Hound

      So you’re saying that Toronto is a large market team NOT in terms of baseball. Okay… Well, in terms of baseball, they are a small market team. They don’t spend the money that the top 2/3 of franchises do and don’t have the resources 26 other MLB clubs do. They also have attendance totals that consistently rate at the bottom of the American League. These aren’t my measures, they’re those of the sources I provided you with; Forbes, Biz of Baseball, ESPN.com… I realize you’re using the economics textbook definition of market, but we’re obviously talking baseball here. By every reputable measure, the Blue Jays don’t have the attendance, and don’t have the resources that other clubs do. Small market team.

      Secondly, Toronto’s front office can’t just spend wildly on whatever they choose. Like any other franchise, those that hold stake in the BlueJays demand reasonable spending practices– ie BUDGETING. Like every other baseball team in the MLB, Toronto has to pay attention to it’s draft budget. In terms of bargaining leverage, their choices are going to be difficult to negotiate with and more expensive/less valuable than the others they could’ve had at the same slot. Because they repeatedly went this route with their many many early picks, they’ll either have to bust their budget and gamble on a bunch of high school prospects that were overpriced to begin with (college commitment leverage for instance) or they’ll have to pick and choose who to sign.

      Instead of Tyler Beede, they could’ve had Alex Meyer, Taylor Guerierri, Levi Michael, Robert Stephenson and/or Andrew Chafin. Any of these players would’ve been a better choice in terms of value or in terms of talent. Instead of Jake Anderson, they could’ve had much better talents at comparable prices. Guys like Henry Owens, Larry Greene, Jackie Bradley, Michael Fulmer, Trevor Story were much better choices at that slot.

      Finally, I’m not whining about anything here. I simply write about baseball for baseballnewshound.com. I don’t have anything against the Blue Jays, but I do believe they failed in the 2011 draft– at least in comparison to teams like the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Padres, Red Sox, Giants and Phillies. I’m publishing your comment because I’m doing my best to answer your original question. You’re statements are definitely inaccurate though, and I don’t appreciate your last comment. However, I hope I’ve clarified your confusion here. Please consult the links I provided in my last post before you make another comment, thanks,

      Ryan

  • DukesRocks

    Hey Ryan,

    Sorry, I didn’t respond earlier, I was not aware you responded to my earlier post.

    I see your main three points for labeling the Jays as a small market team is based on operating budget , attandence and lack of resources. Yes, It is a fact the Jays operate on lower budget then most MLB teams and it also is a fact that there has been a steady decline in attendence since the Jays glory years when they led the league in attendance and won two world series. In regards to resources, I’m unsure exactly what you are referring to.

    Lets start with attendence: It is true attendance is a factor to identify overall interest in a team but so is TV ratings. I’m unsure in comparision to the other MLB teams, but I would wager the Jays would be within the top 10 in the league in TV ratings and it would be interesting to find out what is the difference in attendance revenue vs TV revenue. The TV ratings should reflect that there is still huge interest in the Jays.

    Operating Budget: The Jays have been a non contender for close to 2 decades. The major reason was bad business decision by the previous GM JPR, they Jays play in the mighty AL East and partly because the owners of the Jays at the time really had zero interest in owning the baseball team. To understand the reasoning for the low operating budget you need to understand the ownership history of the Blue Jays. The Jays came as part of the package when Interbrew purchased Labatts Breweries. Interbrew was only interested in the beer company, not the baseball team. The lack of interest in the team and the bad management decisions, sent the Jays on a downward spiral. However, as low as the Jays did go, the interest in the team was always there year after year. Yes attendance did suffer, but Jays fans still took in the games on TV. When Rogers Communication took over the ownership of the team in early 2000, they tried to right the ship. They brought in JPR thinking he had a clue in putting together a contender. As we all know JPR did a bad job, After JPR was unable to right the ship after 8 to 9 years at the helm, Rogers hired AA to take over. What is clear to me since AA took over the team is DIRECTION. As a fan you can see progress in the team from within (draft) and that to me is exciting. What is also clear is Rogers interest in the team and when the right pieces are in place, Rogers has no problem spending the money to contend. If the price is 100 million or 150 million team salary, Rogers will be there. I firmly believe the Jays are a year or two away from challenging the RSox and Yanks.

    In reference to resources. I’m unsure what exactly you are referring to but I can tell you the Jays have all the resouces that any team in the top 10 have.

    Finally, just because the Jays currently operate as a small market time, does not mean they are a small market team. Currently they are being smart with their money until the time comes to spend. In regards to attendance, when the Jays start to contend in the AL East, the fans will come back but the interest in the team was always there and still remains strong.

    On a separate note, regardless on how much money the Jays spend on signing the 2011 draftes. If the Jays sign their top 10 picks. Would you still consider them losers in the draft?

    • http://baseballnewshound.com Baseball News Hound

      Hey I see your point somewhat, but I think you’re really splitting hairs here. Among MLB teams, the BlueJays are ranked 27th by Forbes.com in both value and operating income. Period.

      Now, if you argued that their GM, Anthopoulos, was trying to milk the final year or two of “soft-slotting” before the system becomes more inflexible by emplying hard-slotting, I could see your point. This is clearly his strategy here. But is it a good one for a team that has the talent to win in their near future? Is it good for a team that is 27th in operating income? No, I don’t think so. If they did sign all 10 of their picks, by some amazing feat, they’d definitely be over-spending big time on high school talent. Moneyball, as well as my senior thesis tells me that this is a terrible move.

      They had the money to move on some slam-dunks here, and it seems like Anthopoulos wanted to make his front office look like a group of ingenious. innovators. They are adept at scouting of late, but it’s a difficult pill to swallow that this is a good move for them; Bad move even if they were a contending large-market team. He’s a smart GM– clearly– but he didn’t do so well here.

      By “resources” I mean resources. Budget money.

      Btw, a team with Norris, Drabek and Romero in the rotation with Gose, Thames, Snider in the outfield and Yunel, Lawrie, Arencibia, d’Arnaud and Lind in the infield would be seriously fun to watch. Adeiny has a ways to go but he’ll be a nice glove with speed one day. For now, I really hope Cecil can re-find his Irish luck.

  • DukesRocks

    Hey Ryan,

    Here is an article I found that clearly explains the direction of the Blue Jays. It clearly states the Jays have the capabilities to have a team salary of 150 million in comparison to the market they reside in. If they were a small market team, I don’t believe they would be making such claims.

    The article also brings up the subject of paying over slot for high sealing draft picks and acquisation of type B free agents to obtain additional draft picks. I know you mention you don’t believe in this approach by the Jays, but I guess only time will tell when we see what come out of the 2010 draft.

    I have also done some searching to find out how many household on average watch Jays broadcasts by Sportsnet. I was unable to find an average but I have seen weekly numbers that shows broadcast numbers as low as 400K up to 700K. I was wondering how that compares with the Yankees, RSox, Braves etc.

    Lastly, I’m no financial guru but for some reason, I don’t believe the word of Forbes is the end all be all. To me the numbers don’t add up.

    http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20110128&content_id=16523962&c_id=tor

    • http://baseballnewshound.com Baseball News Hound

      Hey I see your point. They’re not a poor team by any means, they’re just not in the first or second tier. Anthopolous is a great GM and I think he was trying to take advantage of the final year of a system that is about to be abolished, He’s done a great job elsewhere, so I’m sure this won’t be a lose-lose.

      Thanks for the attention, enjoyed your point of view and Forbes.com is solid but definitely not the end-all.

  • DukesRocks

    Hey Ryan, I wanted to wait until after the the draft deadline before I responded to your previous post.

    All in all, the Jays signed the majority of their high sealing picks, its unfortunate about Tyler Beede but I can’t complain with the offer the Jays made him (2.3 mil). I’m very encouraged with the new additions to an already very talanted Jays farm system. In my opinion AA did a fantastic job without really going crazy and over spending on these high schoolers.

    I do want to point out, AA’s hands were never tied by any kind of a spending budget, he had total autonomy to do what he felt was in the best interest of the Jays. AA stated he could have signed prospects like Beede but stated if he met the demands of these prospects, it could harm the Jays in future signings where the players demands could exceed their worth.

    So now that the deadline has come and gone and you are now aware of the cost involved in signing these players, how did the Jays do in the 2011 draft?

    As I mentioned earlier the Jays are not a small market team but rather a large market team. Your argument was base on attendence, payroll and resources the Jays are a small market team.

    As you mentioned the attendence is low comparatively to other MLB teams and I concede this fact, however when it comes to TV ratings the Jays would be tops in the league. Lets examine this fact in more detail. The Blue Jays broadcast average is over 500,000 per HH. I did some reasearch and found that no MLB team even comes close to the Jays in TV ratings. Think about this, the Jays are not even a contender and have the best TV ratings in all of baseball. This got me thinking about revenue generated from Blue Jay’sTV broadcasts and why is this fact not included in Forbes break down in overall value. Well lets see, Rogers owns the Jays, Rogers Centre and also owns Sportsnet the Jays broadcaster. As I mentioned earlier, I’m no financial wiz but for some reason the total worth of the Jays is not reflecting correctly in Forbes evaluation for 2011. I submit there is no way the Jays are the 27th team in value and they should be way higher, I believe there in revenue that’s not reflected correctly in Forbes totals

    According to Forbes, they believe the Jays are going the way of the Expos. What a stupid comment to make base on attendence but yet they state the Jays operate under zero debt. If the Jays operate under no debt, how could they be a burden to Rogers and why would Rogers ever consider selling the Jays. Fact is the Jays are no burden to Rogers, infact the Jays have the pontential to be a huge money making machine for rogers. Case in point is their TV ratings and the future has all sorts of possibilities. Imagine if the Jays tried to harness the fans growing interest in their farm system (thx to AA on his 2010 and 2011 drafts and well as foreign signings) by having a channel dedicated to the Blue Jays only. The Leafs and the Raptors already have their own channel. The great thing about the Jays is they have numerious farm teams and therefore there is more content of interest in comparison to the Leafs and Raptors..

    Here is another tid bit I found interesting. The CWS 2011 attendence is just 2 thousand more then the Jays. I was wondering if you would concider them a small market team?. Yes the CWS payroll is 100 mil, but as I mentioned earlier the Jays could handle a payroll of 150 mil when the time is right. The Jays have and payrolls in the 80 and 90 million mark. I would never consider CWS a small market team but base on how you evaluated the Jays there is a comparison.

    So in conclusion, the Jays in my opinion are not even close to a third tier team. They are a first tier team and can and will compete with any team in baseball. With AA at the helm the Jays will be contenders in no time and soon to be the envy of the league. The difference between Tampa and Toronto unfortunately is the Jays have the money to spend and that my friend is a fact.

    • http://baseballnewshound.com Baseball News Hound

      I’d give them a “B” for their draft efforts. Failing to sign Beede for 2.3 million is probably a blessing because he would’ve been a grossly overpriced long-term development project. So why bother picking him?

      It was obvious that Norris would be an expensive sign based on his pre-draft declarations– and his immense talent level. If he can produce, his big bonus won’t be an issue, but as a high school lefthander, he has a lot to live up to. Again though, if he can reach his ceiling, you have a premium left-handed number-two starter.

      Jake Anderson is off to a nice start as a 1B/OF prospect while Joe Musgrove is looking like a future bullpen piece. The Jays certainly got some nice tools and now that they’ve locked up Norris and Anderson is showing potential, their draft strategy makes more sense. However, they did invest in a lot in high school pitchers and they didn’t capitalize on their chance to get a surplus of polished talent

      Just to discuss the small/big-market thing; As the lone team in Canada and calling Toronto home, their actual “market” isn’t small. While Forbes’ measurement– purely on available data like attendance income– might short change the franchise a bit, it’s impossible to argue that the franchise lays within the top 10-15 most valuable franchises. I conceed that yes, their TV ratings have increased with their SN changes. However, the Blue Jays still fall well outside of the top 10 most viewed franchises, and their attendance after years of decreasing (while it increased this season) still lays barely in the 22,000-23,500 range. But, the BlueJays don’t deserve the “Expos” label by any means and with management like Anthopoulos, the franchise has the potential to be quite wealthy.

      I still don’t understand their selection of Beede. I know they like young toolsy players that get overlooked, but his price got magnified by his home state– one that produces little baseball talent–and his draft slot made him look more valuable than he was. Why not grab a safe pick like Kolten Wong? If you didn’t want to pay for Alex Meyer, why not go with Guerrieri? With that slot, here’s some of the top players they missed out on:

      MI Kolten Wong (.343 BA, .913 OPS in MidWest League)
      SP Alex Meyer
      CF Brian Goodwin
      LF Alex Dickerson (.861 OPS)
      SP Taylor Guerrieri
      2B Levi Michael
      LHP Andrew Chafin
      SP Robert Stephenson
      SS Joe Panik (Northwest League MVP)
      SS Brandon Martin (.725 OPS)
      CF Jackie Bradley
      C Blake Swihart
      3B Dante Bichette Jr. (.342 BA, .951 OPS, Gulf Coast League Player of the Month for July, GCL Title Winner)
      SS Jace Peterson (.705 OPS and .758 in August, 39 SB)
      LHP Andrew Chafin
      SS Trevor Storey (.808 OPS, 11 SB, Pioneer League POW 8/22)
      Jorge Lopez (2.25 ERA)
      LHP Levin Matthews (2.70 ERA)

      Anyway, I’m glad you responded and I think I met you in the middle here. Instead of having a bad draft, the Jays had a solid one; though they did burn their first pick and some bills in the process

  • DukesRocks

    Hey Ryan, thx for your reponse.

    Lets start with Forbes MIGHT be short changing the Jays on value. I contend that Forbes really has no clue on the value of the Jays, let alone most MLB teams. All you have to do is look at the evidence.

    The Jays have the biggest geographical market in the MLB (all of Canada).
    The Jays have the biggest market population base (all of Canada approx 35 million)
    The Jays reside in the biggest city in Canada (GTA approx 6 million)
    The majority if not all Jays televisied games are broadcasted nationally.
    This year the Jays are averaging over 500,000 HH per broadcast, previous year they averaged approx 450,000 HH per broadcast. Both teams were non contenders
    I’m unsure how many radio stations cover the Jays nationally but I’m pretty sure it’s more then most MLB teams, if not all.

    For Forbes to rank the Jays at 27th in the MLB borders stupidity. When it come to the Jays, Forbes should just say, we have no clue since all aspects of revenue attributed to the Jays (TV, radio, advertising, stadium etc) goes directly to Rogers and not to the Blue Jays through various entities that are also owned by Rogers.

    Here’s the thing Ryan, even if the Jays attendence was 3 to 4 million per year, Forbes would still have not clue what the team value would be and still rank them between 15 and 20. When I said the Jays were a first tier team, I was not over stating the Jays worth. There’re only a hand full of teams that can compete with the Jays from a value point of view and most of those cities have 2 teams in them. When I said look at the evidence the only conclusion would be the Jays are within the top 5 in the league from a value point of view.

    Here’s some things you may not know about Rogers and how they make money off the Jays outside of baseball. Rogers is a media giant in Canada and the services and products they offer includes: TV, Radio, Tele Communication, Internet and Publishing. Rogers offers special packages/offers (phone/internet and television) to all Rogers Customer involving Jays broadcasts across Canada. Revenue generated for Rogers outside of baseball could be millions of dollars.

    In regards to all the players the Jays could have chosen instead of Beede, I have to defer to your opinion since I really have no clue on who the HS and College ball players on your list are and what their potential is. However, similar to 2010 the Jays were drafting high sealing HS kids that they figured would project to be top tier draft picks if the kids went to college instead of signing. Maybe they figure Beede would be a top 10 pick in 3 years and by drafting him now, they would be ahead of the game. The strategy seems to be working since they picked up two gems Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino in the 2010 draft.

    In my opinion, I think Beede made a mistake. If he doesn’t project to a top tier draft pick the money may not be there for him in 3 years. I also feel if he signed with the Jays, his route to the majors would be faster then going through college. Anyway all is not lost, the Jays still retain the #22 pick next year and they signed seven international players this year. I would not be supprised when the farm ranking come out, the Jays could be in first or second place for best farm system. From almost last to first in two years, wow. Money goes along way, when you have it and the Jays obviously have it to be able to sign all this talent in the last two years.

2012 MLB Competitive Balance Draft Lottery Results / Baseball News Hound by Ryan Kelley is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives CC BY-NC-ND